The hurricane forecasting team at Colorado State University see no reason to change their 2014 Atlantic hurricane forecast from below-average, with "extremely unfavorable" formation conditions remaining in place in the tropical Atlantic, combined with the expected formation of weak to moderate El Niño event.
The researchers say the below-average prediction is largely due to strong vertical wind shear, dry mid-level air and cool sea surface temperatures anomalies in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.
“So far, the 2014 season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 1957, 1986, 1993, 2002, and 2009 hurricane seasons, all of which had below-normal hurricane activity,” said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the report.
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is calling for a total of 10 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30.
Of those, researchers expect four to become hurricanes and one to reach major hurricane strength (category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making U.S. landfall during the remainder of the hurricane season:
- 38 percent for the entire U.S. coastline (average for the last century is 52 percent)
- 21 percent for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average for the last century is 31 percent)
- 21 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for the last century is 30 percent)
- 30 percent for the Caribbean (average for the last century is 42 percent).
There has been one named storm so far this season, Arthur, which grew to a category 2 hurricane, which skirted along the East Coast, making 2 landfalls, one in North Carolina, the second in Atlantic Canada coast as an extratropical cyclone.
The National Hurricane Center continues to watch a tropical wave that's beening moving across the Atlantic, now off the Windward Islands as of Monday morning, that it gives a high chance of becoming a depression or named storm.
Model runs continue to show the system taking a turn away to the northwest, which would keep it away from the U.S. mainland.